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全文主要观点

尽管市场普遍对2018年全球经济复苏比较乐观,强劲的就业和通胀数据促使美联储逐渐退出量化宽松政策,但潜在过紧的货币政策和中美贸易冲突却给下半年的市场带来了巨大的冲击。2019年我们预计全球经济将保持低速增长,就中国而言,产业升级对经济增长的重要性日益突显,中国政府仍然拥有足够的政策工具和空间,未来的一年,中国将采用何种货币和财政政策对冲外部市场的冲击,保持经济的温和增长,是我们进行宏观研判的焦点。纵观全球,了解自身。本文将通过易麟对2019年经济形势的看法,结合UBS、AXA、JPMORGAN等各家的报告进行客观阐述。Although the market is generally optimistic about the global economic recovery in 2018, strong employment and inflation data prompted the Fed to gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy, and the potentially tight monetary policy and the Sino-US trade conflict brought huge impact to the market in the second half of the year.In 2019, we expect the global economy to maintain growth in 2019 despite at a slower rate. While for China, the importance of industrial upgrading to economic growth has become increasingly prominent. The Chinese government still has sufficient policy tools and space. What currency and fiscal policy will the Chinese government use in the coming year, to hedge the impact of the external market and maintain a moderate growth of the economy is the focus of our macro-decision.This article will make an objective explanation based on Eelion’s views on the economic situation in 2019, combined with reports from UBS, AXA, and JP MORGAN.

2018年经济回顾
  • 中国2018年的GDP增长在政府目标范围中,央行一直在巧妙的调整政策以应对瞬息万变的全球经济形势,一方面保持出口的稳定增长,另一方面促进国内消费;GDP增长速度不再是政府最关注的问题,取而代之的是增长的质量和可持续性;
  • 受强劲的就业和通胀数据支撑,美联储退出量化宽松政策,渐进加息的步伐符合市场预期。货币政策的正常化使传统类别资产和公司估值承压,房地产市场和股票市场情绪有所降温;
  • 美国总统特朗普和朝鲜领导人金正恩的历史性会晤突显了2018年上半年的乐观情绪。然而到了下半年,市场则被负面情绪所笼罩,美中贸易谈判给全球经济带来极大的不确定性,而且将延续至2019年,并成为今年的关键风险事件;
  • 欧洲市场没有实现预期的经济反弹,面对GDP增长和通胀目标压力,欧洲央行不得不维持低利率市场环境;
  • 总体而言,2018年的经济增长符合我们的预期,但各国在贸易问题上史无前例的激进措施和过度需求也将给市场带来巨大冲击。
2019年经济展望

易麟观点:

据世界银行的预计,2019年全球经济增速将从2018年的3.0%下降至2.9%。瑞信,高盛,摩根大通和瑞银等全球主要的投资公司也预测2019年GDP将温和增长,整体增速将保持平稳或略微下降0.2-0.4个百分点。

这与我们的观点是一致的,我们预计2019年全球经济将保持低速增长,其中最大的风险或者说不确定性事件是中美贸易谈判和英国脱欧的进展,而随着3月份的临近,这些风险事件都将在短期内有一个初步的结果。虽然美联储最近的表态偏向鸽派,一定程度上缓和了全球投资者的紧张情绪,但预计美联储紧缩的货币政策和经济刺激措施仍会对全球经济增长有所抑制。

而全球的其他地区,尤其是发达经济体的央行,在经济增长前景放缓的情况下,将比美联储更难退出自2008年以来的量化宽松政策。欧洲市场也将陷于弱通胀和全球市场需求疲软的困境。

根据中美最新的贸易谈判进展,中国大陆地区的工业产出将成为双方的核心关切。面对市场环境的不确定性,制造业企业最重要的是保持成本效益和技术竞争力。事实上,我们在2018年的展望中也曾指出,贸易紧张局势是全球经济增长的主要威胁之一,各国史无前例的激进政策也将给市场带来巨大冲击。

虽然超额投资可能对经济增长有所帮助,但随之而来的债务负担压力增大仍使得政府投资趋于谨慎。随着我国的经济和产业结构的调整而创造出的新的市场机会及其下游的消费领域已经成为一个支撑我国经济增长的日益重要和易得的手段。实际上,许多国际性品牌最新披露的财务报告都提到了中国市场稳定增长,这反映出了中国在产业及经济结构调整的演变过程中强大的经济能力。

由于中国家庭负债率相对较低,中国市场还有极大的成长空间,具有核心技术和成本效益的制造业企业,将成为我国未来经济的重要支柱。中国政府同样注意到了产业结构调整对经济的重要性,而任何对这一增长趋势带来干扰的因素都将引起领导层的重视并进而增加激励措施;国家发改委和央行仍然拥有足够的政策工具和空间,保持经济每年6%以上的温和增长。

虽然经济运行具有周期性,但具有竞争优势和强有力的管理能力的优质企业是能够穿越经济周期实现稳定增长的。在市场退潮的时候,竞争力弱的企业将逐渐退出,好的企业也将在竞争中占据更有利的位置。未来的一年是充满机遇和挑战的一年,货币政策将进一步正常化,而地缘政治和贸易紧张局势也将继续存在。

EELION View:The World Bank Group expected 2019 global economy will expand at 2.9%, down from 3.0% of 2018. In fact, major investment firms, including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and UBS, shared a similar view with a more moderate GDP growth forecast, with overall growth rate expected to stay or slightly drop by 0.2% to 0.4% as compared to 2018.Our view resonates with our peers, expecting the global economy to maintain growth in 2019 despite at a slower rate. Main potential headwind will be the uncertainty from the trade talk between U.S. and China and the Brexit, with both events facing a short term “deadline” in March; The Fed’s monetary tightening and stimulus tampering will add on restraining the global economy yet the recent Fed’s view relieved investors to a certain extent.Other central banks around the world, especially in the developed economy will find themselves having more difficulty than the Fed in rewinding the quantitative easing since 2008 amid a slower growth outlook. That put dilemma to the European market to cope with the weak inflation and global demand.Domestically in the Mainland China, industrial production could be a concern depending on the latest trade talk development with the U.S.; staying cost efficient and technically competitive remain fundamentally important for any manufacturing enterprises, especially under such uncertainty. In fact our outlook in 2018 also pointed out trade tension was one of the main deterrent to global economic growth, yet the aggressive tactics and excessive demand from the States is unprecedented and brought abrupt shock to the market.Government spending has been cautious as excess investment is adding burden on debt yet bringing uncertain benefit to our growth. industrial upgrading has become a more important and readily available tool to support our country’s economic growth. In fact, many of the global brands have reported very solid growth rate in China market in their recent financial release which reflected China’s strong economic capacity in the progress of industrial and economic restructuring.

With relatively low household debt ratio, Manufacturing enterprises with core technologies and cost-effectiveness will have further room to grow to become a strong pillar of our economy.  Our government has also noticed the importance of industrial restructuring to the economy and any disruption in the upgrading trend will alert our leadership to add incentives; after all The NDRC and PBOC still have ample tools and room to maneuver and sustain economic growth at moderately high level above 6% per annum.

While economy runs in cycle, fundamentally good corporates with competitive advantages and strong governance perform across different economic climates and deliver sustainable growth. Many of these companies will find themselves in an even more favorable competitive situation in their specific playground during slower/ weak economic time when many of the underperforming competitors slow down or being forced to closure. The year ahead will be a year full of opportunities and challenges, when monetary policy is going to further normalize and geopolitical/ trade tension continues to stay.

同行观点
AXA View:AXA expect the US will enter a cyclical slowdown in 2019 while the Fed will end its hiking cycle at 3%-3.25%;The Eurozone is already slowing down and we see European politics skewing risks to the downside. The European Central Bank will likely be prudent and leave interest rates on hold until at least September;We have a less positive view on risk assets and are looking to move equities back to a neutral position over the course of 2019;We expect that bund yields will remain range- bound between 0.2% and 0.7% in 2019 and see value in US treasuries above 3.25%.

Goldman Sachs View:The global economy looks poised to slow moderately from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, led by deceleration in the US and further softening in China.Our Fed call remains hawkish relative to the market, with five more 25bp hikes to a terminal 3.25-3.5% funds rate at the end of 2019. While higher rates and tighter financial conditions should help slow growth to its potential rate over the next year, we expect a decline in the unemployment rate to 3% and a rise in core inflation to 2.25% by early 2020.We think concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are overdone. Spillovers to EM are real, but the market has already priced 11 of the 13 hikes we expect for this cycle, so most of the adjustment to more normal US interest rates is probably behind us. The main risk to this view is a more substantial US overheating that eventually forces steeper rate hikes.China has slowed quite sharply in 2018, on the back of slower credit growth and fears about a more damaging trade war. With monetary and fiscal policy now in easing mode, we expect only a modest further deceleration. The macro impact of increasing tariffs is also likely to remain manageable, even under our call for some further escalation in early 2019.Although growth in Europe and Japan has decelerated in the course of 2018, it remains above trend. This should put further downward pressure on the unemployment rate and keep the recent upward trend in wage growth intact. However, with core inflation still far below the target, the Italian budget crisis unresolved, and Brexit negotiations ongoing, the risks to our forecasts of a first hike in the ECB deposit rate in Q4 2019 are tilted to the later side.

Beyond 2019, the risk of a global recession is likely to rise as more and more DM economies move beyond full employment. However, even in subsequent years recession is not our base case. Financial imbalances still look very limited, and the flatter and more anchored Phillips curve has reduced the need for central banks to reverse an overshooting of full employment quickly.

JP Morgan View:After delivering its second straight year of above potential GDP gains, higher inflation and interest rates in 2018, growth in the global economy is set to ease off slightly in 2019. J.P. Morgan estimates the global economy will grow 2.9% in 2019, slightly lower than the 3.1% forecast for 2018.The U.S. economy posted a boomy 3.1% in GDP growth in 2018, a figure which is set to fall to a closer-to-trend 1.9% in 2019, as fiscal, monetary and trade policies start tightening up. Recent disruptions in the euro area industry are expected to fade and the region is forecast to grow 2%, offsetting moderation in U.S. growth. China on the other hand, is facing considerable challenges sustaining growth at around 6% as it deals with internal imbalances and external drag.
UBS View:Despite the fact that the current economic expansion is approaching its 10th anniversary, UBS economists don’t expect a recession. That said, GDP growth will likely slow to trend levels (~2.0%) over the next two years. UBS forecasts US GDP growth of 2.8% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020.
Credit Suisse View:The impact of US fiscal stimulus will likely peak in the course of 2019, but growth should remain above trend on the back of robust corporate capital expenditure, hiring and wage growth. In China, however, we are likely to see growth slow towards 6%. US tariffs, sluggish manufacturing investment and slowing consumption growth are likely to act as constraints. In Europe and Japan, still lax monetary conditions should help maintain moderate growth momentum. But in a number of emerging markets, growth looks set to remain subpar as policymakers focus on inflation and currency control.